Tuesday, August 02, 2011

[dxnbuakt] Predictions after the debt ceiling compromise

So we passed some legislation increasing in the debt ceiling and cutting spending.  The right says we should have cut more; the left says we should have cut less (and increased taxes on the rich).  Who is correct?  Here is a way to answer this question.

Once the legislation is passed, we can stop talking ideology and start taking measurements.

Take some key economic indicators: GDP, unemployment rate, interest rate on Treasuries, inflation rate, S&P 500 index, life expectancy, murder rate, etc.   Predict what these values will be over the next few years based on the effects of the now-passed legislation.  Let many people make predictions, based on different methodologies (likely different ideologies).  Let these predictions and methodologies be publicly recorded.  When the future rolls around, we'll see who is the closest.  Then, apply the most accurate methodology to a hypothetical scenario where the left had gotten more of its way, and to where the right had gotten more its way.  Who's way would have been better? Who should we have listened to before passing the legislation?

Previously, legislation predictions in general.

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