if a supernova occurs in the Milky Way or its satellite galaxies or globular clusters, what is the probability that it will be visible, not obscured by intervening dust? it's a little surprising that something so energetic can be invisible.
it will probably be observable in infrared. it will probably be observable as neutrinos. how much are neutrinos attenuated (and slowed down?) by a lot of intervening gas and dust?
if dust obscures visible light observation, neutrino detectors (e.g., SNEWS) would probably detect a burst, but it might be a while before the supernova is be located. (previously, as fiction.) how long does it take to do a whole-sky infrared survey? perhaps triangulating neutrino detections around the world can narrow the search, though bursts -- based on the one burst we've observed from SN1987a -- are rather broad (surprisingly).
other reasons a supernova might not be visible: too close to the sun in the sky, or you are in the wrong hemisphere.
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