Sunday, April 12, 2020

[cyutalte] "Snap" as a measure of mortality rate

Inspired by Thanos in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, consider a "snap" as a unit of death toll.

current world population: 7.8 billion

1 snap is the death of half that: 3.9 billion deaths

current global mortality rate: 7.7 deaths per 1000 per year = 60.06 million total deaths = 15.4 millisnap = 15400 microsnap.

(In general, X millisnap = a mortality rate of X/2 per 1000.  Killing half the population = mortality rate of 500 per 1000 = mortality rate of (1000/2) per 1000 = 1000 millisnap = 1 snap.)

average annual worldwide mortality burden of influenza: 389000 deaths = 100 microsnap
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
(range including uncertainty and variability: 75 to 133 microsnap)

Some people, possibly alarmist, are estimating COVID-19 to be 5-10x "worse" than flu.  Assuming they mean "worse" in its global death toll after 1 year, they are predicting that COVID-19 will be 500 to 1000 microsnap.

Assuming population is constant (which it isn't):

1 microsnap = 3900 deaths (e.g., 9/11)
death of 1 person = 0.256 nanosnap = 256 picosnap
1 micromort = 0.256 femtosnap = 256 attosnap

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