Tuesday, June 06, 2017

[jjhossuh] Weapon prediction contest

Weapons technologies (broadly) might typically be a military's most closely guarded secrets, with wars throughout history being won by surprise unveiling of a new or radically improved technology.

(On the other hand, in order to use a technology, soldiers must be trained to use it, often many soldiers.  And it is hard to keep a secret when many people know it.)

In order to decrease the destabilizing effect of secret weapons technology, provide incentives for information to leak.  Perhaps prizes for accurate and precise predictions for weapons that haven't been publicly acknowledged or used yet.  Perhaps a market mechanism where people can put money on either side of a prediction.  Prizes awarded when the weapon is revealed.

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