A pessimistic outlook on human history: we always revert to tribalism as the norm, unless some unusual and ephemeral circumstances (e.g., sudden access to a large quantity of natural resources) allow us to temporarily "get our shit together" on a larger scale than tribes. The large nations we currently see are an aberration.
Maybe not tribes of population up to 100 but slightly larger city-states?
Counterarguments: technology has increased speed and lowered costs of transportation and communication. Nuclear weapons have increased the cost of political reorganization.
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