Examine why a peaceful transition of power successfully occurs in the places that do, in contrast to the places that don't. What incentives are different? If a reason is important enough to cause violence in one place, then why is the same reason not important enough somewhere else?
I suspect the answer is that very little power actually changes hands when it appears to transition peacefully. This could be interpreted cynically, that power is actually covertly held behind the scenes by others, for example, the wealthy, and merely that the figureheads are changing face.
If the cynical interpretation is true, then hypothesize that a peaceful transition of a lot of power is fundamentally impossible, and all instances we see are illusions.
Or optimistically, institutionalized decentralization of power lowers incentives and prevents violence.
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