Should an employer hire a given job applicant? This is a very difficult question.
Suppose we increase the stakes as well as the resources. Millions of dollars rest on making the correct hiring decision. The employer has practically unlimited resources to research and background check the applicant before hiring. Under such conditions, you would think that nearly optimal decisions would usually occur, so there should be few surprises of the hired employee turning out to be different than expected.
However, this situation occurs constantly in professional sports, and bad decisions seem to be made all the time: J.D. Drew.
If we can't get it right even under optimal conditions, then how imperfect is regular labor market? Is there any hope in improving it?
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