Assuming the Iraq civil war is ultimately about control of oil fields (the religious difference is not special compared to dozens of peaceful religious divisions around the world), the civil war is curious because it is a lose-lose scenario for both sides. While the war happens, no one makes oil revenues. Game theoretically, we would expect both sides to agree on a dispute resolution method that does not interrupt the flow of oil, perhaps sabre rattling and negotiation.
Examine if there are third parties egging on the conflict, parties who are interested in war occurring or are interested in the flow of oil from there being interrupted.
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