Saturday, March 16, 2024

[vsibrkyz] astronomically rare dice rolls

obtaining a whole bunch of regular dice (d6) and rolling them simultaneously seems not very difficult.  (Amazon currently sells sets of as many as 100 for under $20.)  consider rolling until they all come up 6.  doing such an exercise allows viscerally trying to experience very low probabilities.  humans generally have difficulty understanding low probabilities.  for a given low probability, you can map it to a number of dice.

below are the reciprocals of probabilities of N dice up to 100, interspersed with some orders of magnitude in base 10 and base 2.  for example, all sixes on 2 dice has a probability of 1 in 36.  100 dice is approximately the probability of breaking 258-bit security by random chance.

is it practically difficult to roll many dice simultaneously?  maybe they land leaned against each other, interfering with landing flat.  beyond a certain number, it becomes difficult to verify between rolls that you haven't lost any.

coins are also easy to obtain, but when flipping many coins simultaneously, it's likely some will roll quite far on their edges before landing on a side.  collisions among dice also might occasionally propel some of them a very long distance.

1 6 (6.0e0)
2 36 (3.6e1)
3 216 (2.2e2)
4 1,296 (1.3e3)
5 7,776 (7.8e3)
6 46,656 (4.7e4)
7 279,936 (2.8e5)
million
8 1,679,616 (1.7e6)
9 10,077,696 (1.0e7)
10 60,466,176 (6.0e7)
11 362,797,056 (3.6e8)
billion
12 2,176,782,336 (2.2e9)
13 13,060,694,016 (1.3e10)
14 78,364,164,096 (7.8e10)
15 470,184,984,576 (4.7e11)
trillion
16 2,821,109,907,456 (2.8e12)
17 16,926,659,444,736 (1.7e13)
18 101,559,956,668,416 (1.0e14)
19 609,359,740,010,496 (6.1e14)
quadrillion
20 3,656,158,440,062,976 (3.7e15)
21 21,936,950,640,377,856 (2.2e16)
22 131,621,703,842,267,136 (1.3e17)
23 789,730,223,053,602,816 (7.9e17)
24 4,738,381,338,321,616,896 (4.7e18)
64 bits
25 28,430,288,029,929,701,376 (2.8e19)
26 170,581,728,179,578,208,256 (1.7e20)
27 1,023,490,369,077,469,249,536 (1.0e21)
28 6,140,942,214,464,815,497,216 (6.1e21)
29 36,845,653,286,788,892,983,296 (3.7e22)
30 221,073,919,720,733,357,899,776 (2.2e23)
31 1,326,443,518,324,400,147,398,656 (1.3e24)
32 7,958,661,109,946,400,884,391,936 (8.0e24)
33 47,751,966,659,678,405,306,351,616 (4.8e25)
34 286,511,799,958,070,431,838,109,696 (2.9e26)
35 1,719,070,799,748,422,591,028,658,176 (1.7e27)
36 10,314,424,798,490,535,546,171,949,056 (1.0e28)
37 61,886,548,790,943,213,277,031,694,336 (6.2e28)
38 371,319,292,745,659,279,662,190,166,016 (3.7e29)
39 2,227,915,756,473,955,677,973,140,996,096 (2.2e30)
40 13,367,494,538,843,734,067,838,845,976,576 (1.3e31)
41 80,204,967,233,062,404,407,033,075,859,456 (8.0e31)
42 481,229,803,398,374,426,442,198,455,156,736 (4.8e32)
43 2,887,378,820,390,246,558,653,190,730,940,416 (2.9e33)
44 17,324,272,922,341,479,351,919,144,385,642,496 (1.7e34)
45 103,945,637,534,048,876,111,514,866,313,854,976 (1.0e35)
46 623,673,825,204,293,256,669,089,197,883,129,856 (6.2e35)
47 3,742,042,951,225,759,540,014,535,187,298,779,136 (3.7e36)
48 22,452,257,707,354,557,240,087,211,123,792,674,816 (2.2e37)
49 134,713,546,244,127,343,440,523,266,742,756,048,896 (1.3e38)
128 bits
50 808,281,277,464,764,060,643,139,600,456,536,293,376 (8.1e38)
51 4,849,687,664,788,584,363,858,837,602,739,217,760,256 (4.8e39)
52 29,098,125,988,731,506,183,153,025,616,435,306,561,536 (2.9e40)
53 174,588,755,932,389,037,098,918,153,698,611,839,369,216 (1.7e41)
54 1,047,532,535,594,334,222,593,508,922,191,671,036,215,296 (1.0e42)
55 6,285,195,213,566,005,335,561,053,533,150,026,217,291,776 (6.3e42)
56 37,711,171,281,396,032,013,366,321,198,900,157,303,750,656 (3.8e43)
57 226,267,027,688,376,192,080,197,927,193,400,943,822,503,936 (2.3e44)
58 1,357,602,166,130,257,152,481,187,563,160,405,662,935,023,616 (1.4e45)
59 8,145,612,996,781,542,914,887,125,378,962,433,977,610,141,696 (8.1e45)
60 48,873,677,980,689,257,489,322,752,273,774,603,865,660,850,176 (4.9e46)
61 293,242,067,884,135,544,935,936,513,642,647,623,193,965,101,056 (2.9e47)
62 1,759,452,407,304,813,269,615,619,081,855,885,739,163,790,606,336 (1.8e48)
63 10,556,714,443,828,879,617,693,714,491,135,314,434,982,743,638,016 (1.1e49)
64 63,340,286,662,973,277,706,162,286,946,811,886,609,896,461,828,096 (6.3e49)
65 380,041,719,977,839,666,236,973,721,680,871,319,659,378,770,968,576 (3.8e50)
66 2,280,250,319,867,037,997,421,842,330,085,227,917,956,272,625,811,456 (2.3e51)
67 13,681,501,919,202,227,984,531,053,980,511,367,507,737,635,754,868,736 (1.4e52)
68 82,089,011,515,213,367,907,186,323,883,068,205,046,425,814,529,212,416 (8.2e52)
69 492,534,069,091,280,207,443,117,943,298,409,230,278,554,887,175,274,496 (4.9e53)
70 2,955,204,414,547,681,244,658,707,659,790,455,381,671,329,323,051,646,976 (3.0e54)
71 17,731,226,487,286,087,467,952,245,958,742,732,290,027,975,938,309,881,856 (1.8e55)
72 106,387,358,923,716,524,807,713,475,752,456,393,740,167,855,629,859,291,136 (1.1e56)
73 638,324,153,542,299,148,846,280,854,514,738,362,441,007,133,779,155,746,816 (6.4e56)
74 3,829,944,921,253,794,893,077,685,127,088,430,174,646,042,802,674,934,480,896 (3.8e57)
192 bits
75 22,979,669,527,522,769,358,466,110,762,530,581,047,876,256,816,049,606,885,376 (2.3e58)
76 137,878,017,165,136,616,150,796,664,575,183,486,287,257,540,896,297,641,312,256 (1.4e59)
77 827,268,102,990,819,696,904,779,987,451,100,917,723,545,245,377,785,847,873,536 (8.3e59)
78 4,963,608,617,944,918,181,428,679,924,706,605,506,341,271,472,266,715,087,241,216 (5.0e60)
79 29,781,651,707,669,509,088,572,079,548,239,633,038,047,628,833,600,290,523,447,296 (3.0e61)
80 178,689,910,246,017,054,531,432,477,289,437,798,228,285,773,001,601,743,140,683,776 (1.8e62)
81 1,072,139,461,476,102,327,188,594,863,736,626,789,369,714,638,009,610,458,844,102,656 (1.1e63)
82 6,432,836,768,856,613,963,131,569,182,419,760,736,218,287,828,057,662,753,064,615,936 (6.4e63)
83 38,597,020,613,139,683,778,789,415,094,518,564,417,309,726,968,345,976,518,387,695,616 (3.9e64)
84 231,582,123,678,838,102,672,736,490,567,111,386,503,858,361,810,075,859,110,326,173,696 (2.3e65)
85 1,389,492,742,073,028,616,036,418,943,402,668,319,023,150,170,860,455,154,661,957,042,176 (1.4e66)
86 8,336,956,452,438,171,696,218,513,660,416,009,914,138,901,025,162,730,927,971,742,253,056 (8.3e66)
87 50,021,738,714,629,030,177,311,081,962,496,059,484,833,406,150,976,385,567,830,453,518,336 (5.0e67)
88 300,130,432,287,774,181,063,866,491,774,976,356,909,000,436,905,858,313,406,982,721,110,016 (3.0e68)
89 1,800,782,593,726,645,086,383,198,950,649,858,141,454,002,621,435,149,880,441,896,326,660,096 (1.8e69)
90 10,804,695,562,359,870,518,299,193,703,899,148,848,724,015,728,610,899,282,651,377,959,960,576 (1.1e70)
91 64,828,173,374,159,223,109,795,162,223,394,893,092,344,094,371,665,395,695,908,267,759,763,456 (6.5e70)
92 388,969,040,244,955,338,658,770,973,340,369,358,554,064,566,229,992,374,175,449,606,558,580,736 (3.9e71)
93 2,333,814,241,469,732,031,952,625,840,042,216,151,324,387,397,379,954,245,052,697,639,351,484,416 (2.3e72)
94 14,002,885,448,818,392,191,715,755,040,253,296,907,946,324,384,279,725,470,316,185,836,108,906,496 (1.4e73)
95 84,017,312,692,910,353,150,294,530,241,519,781,447,677,946,305,678,352,821,897,115,016,653,438,976 (8.4e73)
96 504,103,876,157,462,118,901,767,181,449,118,688,686,067,677,834,070,116,931,382,690,099,920,633,856 (5.0e74)
97 3,024,623,256,944,772,713,410,603,088,694,712,132,116,406,067,004,420,701,588,296,140,599,523,803,136 (3.0e75)
98 18,147,739,541,668,636,280,463,618,532,168,272,792,698,436,402,026,524,209,529,776,843,597,142,818,816 (1.8e76)
99 108,886,437,250,011,817,682,781,711,193,009,636,756,190,618,412,159,145,257,178,661,061,582,856,912,896 (1.1e77)
256 bits
100 653,318,623,500,070,906,096,690,267,158,057,820,537,143,710,472,954,871,543,071,966,369,497,141,477,376 (6.5e77)

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