Friday, April 29, 2022

[psukfbam] Saturn's rings violate the mediocrity principle

as a proportion of the existence of the solar system, Saturn's magnificent rings have a very short life span remaining, less than 100 million years:

"Observations of the chemical and thermal response of 'ring rain' on Saturn's ionosphere"

by the German tank problem, we can estimate that Saturn's rings have been around for about 100 million years.

therefore, we seem to be living in a very unusual time period in which Saturn has rings, seemingly violating the mediocrity principle.  (but note that the German tank problem assumes the mediocrity principle.)  (and the multiple hypotheses fallacy /  "multiple comparisons problem" suggests we can find some violation of the mediocrity principle if we look hard enough.)

or perhaps it is not statistically unusual for some planet to have had a major incursion recently within its Roche limit and therefore have major ring system.  but we lack a mechanism to explain major incursions happening so commonly.

Phobos is expected to disintegrate into a ring system around Mars "soon".

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