Monday, December 07, 2015

[nnjdmdjl] Sports offense differentials

In American football, the winner of a regular season is determined by the win-loss differential.  However, reasonable alternatives, looking at games in finer detail, could be point differential or total yardage differential.  If either of the latter two were used, the game would probably be played slightly differently.

Similarly, in baseball, run differential or total bases differential, though deciding the "right" way to calculate the latter statistic seems tricky.  Because teams play each other in multiple games, we can go the opposite direction towards grosser detail and, instead of games won or lost, count series won or lost.

Other sports don't seem to have a straightforward way of quantifying total offense at finer detail than "points".

Crown the regular season champion through the combination of these features.  Probably weight the finer statistics more.  Several goals, possibly in conflict with each other:

Eliminate garbage time toward the end of the game.
Reward consistent strong play through entire season.
Avoid outlier results from affecting things too much (perhaps injury or weather).

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