Hypothesize that people who face severe barriers to getting sex through "normal", legal, consensual means are more likely to become sex offenders.
This is a testable scientific hypothesis.
On one hand, this is obvious: if you can't get sex one way, you get sex another way. On the other hand, this is radical notion, suggesting that there is nothing inherent in sex offenders themselves that caused them to do what they do, a radical contrast to the traditional notion that they are flawed, defective people unable to control their sexual urges.
As a corollary, if the hypothesis is true, the only reason you aren't a sex offender is not because you are not such a flawed defective person, but because you have been able to get sex through normal, legal, consensual means. The only reason you aren't a rapist is because the other party consented (at a high enough rate).
Previously, we estimated there is a factor of 100,000 in the rate at which people perceive they have the opportunity for sex. We continue to wonder why there is such a immense range.
If the hypothesis is correct, then the most effective policy to prevent sex offenses is to correct the mechanisms, almost certainly social barriers, that are preventing people from getting sex. Look at the environment surrounding the person, not the person themselves. But this will likely run into opposition from those around who will say that that person does not "deserve" sex.
How many sex offenders have you contributed to creating, by contributing to such environments around a person?
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