Monday, March 09, 2015

[jwbeutxc] High risk science

Does society have the correct incentives to pursue science that has high upside value if successful, but has low probability of success?  We assume that the expected utility is positive.

Of particular interest whether there are scientific projects which may destroy the career of the person (or of many people) if unsuccessful.  The project is all-consuming; there is no way to hedge one's bets in case of failure.

Given that academic careers in science greatly reward success (with promotion) and penalize failure, we strongly suspect that scientists are risk-averse, and that incentives are not set right for the best interests of society.

As noted in the Decline Effect, negative results do not garner acclaim.

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