Monday, April 22, 2013

[qjymtoni] Critiquing the case for an older woman

http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/the-case-for-an-older-woman/
The Case For An Older Woman, OkCupid blog.

Missing from OkCupid's analysis is whether the dating preferences by age are actually irrational, so people should change their behavior to increase their happiness.  For example, it could be that, even though the probability is low, an older guy gets such tremendous happiness from a younger woman that the expected utility is greater than a higher-probability but causing-him-less-happiness older woman, so his efforts are rationally optimally expended on younger women.  I'm not sure if OkCupid has, or can derive, this kind of data on utilities.

It's tricky because, on one hand, humans have difficulty understanding small probabilities, while on the other hand, those who act incorrectly on this topic become evolutionarily selected against.

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