Saturday, January 26, 2013

[hpxulmcw] All men are created equal, quantitatively

Make predictions about a person's life at the moment of birth.  We are particularly interested in predictions of how this baby will lead a life different from the mean.  Unfortunately, nowadays statistically accurate predictions can be made based on race, sex, and parents' income.

Let there be contests to develop the best predictors.  Insurance actuaries already do this.

Quantitatively measure the effectiveness of social policies attempting to implement the ideal of "all men (and women) are created equal" by how poorly the best predictor performs.

Minimize the maximum predictor.  Glossing over how to compare one predictor versus another.

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