Saturday, February 18, 2012

[izkbcqtz] National Debt and Lifetime Income

The per capita share of the national debt is about $46,000.  But anyone who quotes that number (or similarly, your household's share) is probably sleazily trying to manipulate you into supporting whatever political goals they're actually trying to achieve.  A more responsible way of describing the size of the debt is: the per capita share of the national debt is 1.3% of your total lifetime income.

Because the income distribution pyramid is fat at the bottom, and most people are in the bottom part of the pyramid, most people's fair share is much less than $46,000.

1.3% assumes a flat tax.  If using a progressive income tax, most people's percentage share would be even less.  What is the median percentage?

Average total lifetime income was calculated by multiplying total yearly income (GDP) and life expectancy, and dividing by population.

1.3% .  Is that a lot?  That's up to you.  You'd probably be annoyed if sales taxes went up by 1.3% but it's not visions of total financial ruin for your family, or several new cars, that the figure $46,000 conjures up.

1.3% is if we put the hypothetically put burden of paying back the debt on a single generation's lifetime.  Given that the debt was accumulated over many generations, and certainly some of the debt spending benefits many future generations (e.g., defeating the USSR), they should pay for it, too.

1.3% assumes we pay off the entirety of the debt, including the part the exists to make the financial markets work (as the lowest risk asset).  This would be a bad idea.

The number $46,000, while technically not a lie, is a horribly disingenuous and emotionally misleading.

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