Tuesday, November 01, 2011

[bsiuptjv] Short selling Arab spring

Fuel prices are high.  But there has not been any significant disruption of oil supply, and demand is lower because of the poor economy.  So you would think prices should go down.

The conventional wisdom is that current high fuel prices are a result of uncertainty that Arab Spring might cause a disruption in oil supply.  No disruption has occurred, yet; it's just the cost of uncertainty.

Suppose, you, as a regular consumer of gasoline, want to bet that Arab Spring ultimately won't cause any disruption; that is, this commodity, oil, is currently priced wrong: too high.

Normally, if you are correct that a commodity is priced too high, you can make a profit by short sales.

How can a regular consumer get access to this market?  If there are barriers to entry, we have a big problem, because it's regular consumers who ultimately bear the cost of the speculation.

Something about oil futures.

No comments :