[pfngcrls] Terrorist alert probability

Express the imminency of a terrorist attack in terms of probabilities, like weather forecasts, instead of the stupid and useless color coded terrorist alert levels (Sesame Street), and its equally useless (though slightly less stupid) successor involving two levels of Twitter.   If you are Bayesian, you can assign probabilities to anything.  This will finally give people, e.g., actuaries, information on how to act in the face of a potential terrorist attack.

The methodology should be made as public as possible, and the background probabilities in the face of no known specific threats should also be published.  It is the relative increase in probability that people will likely care about.

While probability of death is straightforward, how do you express the probability of maiming?  Expected dollars of total damage?  Loss of life expectancy?  Loss of years of productive life?